Gambl0g

2007-07-09T23:13:00.001-07:00

I'm too tired to email everyone back, but everyone who submitted their payment today has been added on LiveJournal and should be able to see the test post.

Update

2007-07-08T22:56:00.001-07:00

After digging through my spam (and man, did a lot of your emails end up there...something about the subject "first week's payment" really sets off the alarm bells at gmail) I've now added everyone (who's paid) on LiveJournal except beermankirk from 2+2.

I think I did, anyway. I updated the LiveJournal with a friends-only post titled "Test". If you can see it, you're good to go.

There's still the mystery of the three people who have added me on LJ but not submitted the first week's payment. Hey, there's still time. Just let me know when you do it.

Sorry to everyone who was inconvenienced. Damn spam filters...

First Half Stats

2007-07-08T21:48:00.000-07:00

Yesterday: 2-5, -3.27 units

Week: 20-31-1, -9.66 units (ouch)

YTD: 314-314-6, +167.18 units (better)

I still haven't received LiveJournal usernames from three people who have paid already. Probably not coincidentally, there are also three people who added me as a LJ friend and I haven't reciprocated.

Remember that I need your payment info so I can make the connection between a payment source and a LiveJournal username. I'd hate to have to cut off someone's feed next week when they've sent their weekly payment well in advance, because I don't know who they are.

This means you:

andrew400
gal96
p0lka78

Shoot me a 2+2 PM at crockpot, or an email at resultsdisoriented at gmail, with your LJ username, your method of payment and your username at Stars/PayPal email address.

Edit: It has come to my attention that several of you have attempted to email me with your info but gotten stuck in my spam folder. I'm going through it now.

Added 7/8 Plays

2007-07-08T07:25:00.000-07:00

Fla (5i) +122
Tam-.5 (5i) +115

To those of you who won't be joining me at LiveJournal: thanks for the support, and it's been a (mostly) fun ride.

LiveJournal

2007-07-08T04:48:00.000-07:00

I've just posted a friends-only entry at the LiveJournal that reads:

"If you can see this message, it means you're good to go for receiving the first week's picks."

If you do not see this message when loading the blog over there, the most likely reason is that you haven't given me your LiveJournal info. Remember that you need to send me an email (or 2+2 PM) with your LiveJournal username along with your method of payment. If you paid via Stars transfer, let me know your Stars name also so I can connect the dots.

There's one user who has added me as a friend on LJ but I have no clue how he paid me. Get that info in to me; if I don't add you, you can't see the picks.

Several people have paid but not submitted their LiveJournal account name. If you don't have one, go sign up. It's free and takes 5 minutes, tops.

It's not necessary that you add me as a LJ friend (only that I add you) but it may make it easier to renew your subscription in case you miss a payment, so you're welcome to do this.

Edit: Feel free to submit payment for future weeks if you think it will make things simpler, but make sure you let me know so I don't lock you out in the middle of your subscription.

Edit 2: Even if you add me as a friend on LJ, I still don't know who you are and whether or not you've submitted your payments. Send me an email or PM so I can confirm this information. You will not be able to view the journal unless I add you as a friend, rather than the other way around.

July 8 Picks

2007-07-08T02:38:00.000-07:00

Final reminder: We're moving to gambl0g.livejournal.com after today.

If you've already submitted your payment for next week's picks but haven't sent me your LiveJournal username (along with your payment info so I know you've paid), do so ASAP so I can give you access to the private blog entries. I'm not sure when they'll release lines for Thursday, but I'm liable to start placing bets as soon as they do, and you won't want to miss any.

In the spirit of preparation for next week, today I'll stick to lines that are available at a major outlet.

Pit +158
NYM +155
SD -139
LAA+1.5 -106 (2) - If you don't have Pinny, play LAA +176 for 1
Sea +166

Yesterday: 4-5, -0.13 units

2007-07-07T11:49:00.000-07:00

Boy, these early line movements are madness.

1:00 PM: Greek opens LAA+1.5 at -105. No one bets enough to move it off that number.
1:10 PM: CRIS opens LAA+1.5 at -110. No one bets enough to move it off that number.
1:35 PM: Pinnacle opens NYY-1.5 at +113. All of a sudden, everyone is interested in the CRIS and Greek odds. Both quickly shoot up to -125/+105 on that game.
1:50 PM: Pinnacle's run line on LAA/NYY has now moved to -106/-104. It's two cents away from being arb-able on the other side.

Added 7/7 Play

2007-07-07T08:23:00.000-07:00

Det-.5 (5i) -113

Today's CRIS Freeplay Parlay:

Col -113
Min +115
SF-.5 (5i) +125
Det-.5 (5i) -115

Total odds: +1605

July 7 Picks

2007-07-06T21:59:00.000-07:00

SD -135
SF +100 (2)
Col -107
NYY-1.5 +170
Min +124
Tam +137
Det-1.5 +140

Added: Sea+1.5 -177

Yesterday: 7-3, +8.98 units

Added 7/6 Play II

2007-07-06T08:09:00.001-07:00

Min +108 (Game 2) (4)

Added: Fla (5i) +120

I hope everyone that complained about the lack of big plays is happy.

Added 7/6 Play

2007-07-06T04:08:00.000-07:00

Sea +187

I should note that bickering in the comments is really not the best way to encourage me to continue posting in the face of a prolonged losing streak, even if you do have legitimate concerns. If you want me to not post until the morning of the games, I can try, but a lot of games are going to be missing because the value was bet out of them early.

Bear in mind that as the convenience of posting picks wanes, so does my incentive to keep doing it.

Early July 6 Picks

2007-07-05T13:00:00.000-07:00

Pit +116
Mil-1.5 +129 and Mil (5i) -130 (1 each)
NYM +119 (2)
Col-1.5 +138
Min +115 (2)
Tex +104

Yesterday: 2-6, -5.07 units

Bet Sizing

2007-07-04T15:28:00.000-07:00

I'll try not to write too extensively about my losing streak, because it's not really doing any of us any good. But it's important to note that if you've been increasing your bet size as the season has gone on--and I hope you have been--it's probably time to scale it back down a bit.

This doesn't mean you need to suddenly slice it in half. I've roughly broken even since mid-June, so you should be fine betting the same unit you used then. But don't be stubborn and try to get even quickly, because that's the kind of thing that can lead to financial ruin.

Added 7/4 Plays II

2007-07-04T12:58:00.000-07:00

Mil +112
LAD -106
Oak -119

I hate to include the plays this late, but the lines just moved into this position.

Early July 5 Picks

2007-07-04T12:38:00.000-07:00

Since I may be on a raging bender tonight, here are some early plays for tomorrow. Yes, I know the lines have moved. That happens.

Was +131 (2)
SF +131 (2)
Tam+1.5 +110
ChW-1.5 +193 and ChW (5i) -108 (1 each)

Added: Tex +162 and Tex+1.5 +100 (1 each)

Added: Cle +113

Yesterday: 2-5-1, -3.59 units

Parlays: -1 Freeplay

Added 7/4 Plays

2007-07-04T07:39:00.000-07:00

Fla (5i) +190

Added: Phi (5i) -124

Added: Cin +107

Today's DSI Freeplay Parlay:

Col (5i) +125
Fla (5i) +190
Cle (5i) +120

Total Odds: +1335

More Ideas

2007-07-04T06:59:00.000-07:00

I'm trying to decide on a units system for the new blog. Since I want to change the tiers from 5% wide to 2.5% wide, I wonder if it's better to go with:

A) 1 = 5-7.5%
2 = 7.5-10%
3 = 10-12.5%
etc.

or

B) 2 = 5-7.5%
3 = 7.5-10%
4 = 10-12.5%
etc.

Obviously the second plan makes more logical sense. Either way I'm concerned that it may confuse people who are used to the current system. (Plus, of course, it might cause people to halve their unit size and pay me less.) Maybe if I include frequent reminders in the new posts, no one will get mixed up? Under system B, I recommend a unit size between .5-1% of your sports bankroll, depending on your level of aggressiveness.

On a related note, do the subscribers of the new blog want me to post plays that are barely under 5% if they don't mind pressing small edges? For example, if we're going with plan B, I could make 1 unit plays 4-5% or something like that. That way, if the line has moved, you'll know it's generally not worth playing.

Finally, RickJ posted a link to a very good post on the ups and downs of sports betting and having the discipline necessary to do well at it. This should be required reading for anyone betting significant money on sports. Hopefully none of the gambl0g readers are going to get on my case for a losing streak, or bet with a unit size that constantly puts their bankroll at risk. Well, I suppose if they were, it would have happened by now.

Perspective

2007-07-04T05:29:00.001-07:00

It's been a rough week, so I need a pick-me-up. This post, and my latest entry over at Results Disoriented, are more about convincing myself that I'll snap out of this than convincing any of you.

After a pretty bad run, I'm still up 160 units on the season, counting the losses from parlays and over/unders.

If my expected edge declines significantly in the second half, I should still end the season up more than 200 units, which is pretty damn good.

If my edge is actually 0% (not bloody likely), I'm still expected to end the season up 160 units. That's several times as well as I thought I could do before the season began.

If all the lines I'm betting into are "correct" and I'm just paying vig, I'm still expected to end the season up 140 units.

All in all, not a bad little year. Hopefully the next week goes better.

July 4 Picks

2007-07-03T23:35:00.000-07:00

Boy, did I pick a bad time to market these picks as something worth paying for.

Cle +127 (2)
Tex +166

Yesterday: 1-6, -7.43 units

Added 7/3 Plays

2007-07-03T09:51:00.000-07:00

SF +118
Col-.5 (5i) +110
Ari (5i) -131

Added: Tam (5i) +179

Payment info

2007-07-03T05:13:00.000-07:00

I figure there's no harm in divulging my payment info here. This way you can get started on the first week's payment. Remember it's half-price because of the half week.

PayPal: Transfer to resultsdisoriented at gmail.com
Poker Stars: Transfer to zoso1908 (city: Naperville) - If the White Sox didn't have such a terrible commentary team while I was growing up, this could be zoso2005. C'est la vie.

After you send your payment, shoot me an email with:

- Your Stars username or PayPal email address
- Your LiveJournal username

The picks will be posted to http://gambl0g.livejournal.com.

I'll begin with a two week trial period. After that, if I'm not happy with how things are going--AKA how rich I'm getting off this--we can re-evaluate. I'll try and be as up-front as possible about my intentions.

Edit: I know a lot of you are probably waiting for a response from me. I'm a little swamped right now, which is the reason I started this process in advance. I'll get back to everyone within the next couple of days.

July 3 Picks

2007-07-02T20:49:00.000-07:00

Was +180 (2)
Phi +156
SD -141
Min+1.5 -106 (2)

Yesterday: 2-1, +0.85 units

July 2 Picks

2007-07-01T19:22:00.001-07:00

Mutter.

Was+1.5 -115
SD -127
Bal+1.5 -201

Yesterday: 3-5-1, -4.43 units

Week: 22-31-2, -3.70 units

YTD: 294-283-5, +176.84 units

Added 7/1 Play

2007-07-01T07:24:00.001-07:00

NYM +101 (2)

Added:

SF (5i) -125
Pit (5i) -143

Framework

2007-07-01T03:43:00.001-07:00

Okay, I think we have a basic framework in place for the post-All Star Break picks. If you'd like to sign up, contact me via email or 2+2 with your email address and payment method.

I'll accept payments over Stars or PayPal. If you can't do either of those, I might be willing to work out another option, but it'd be less convenient.

(Edit: Obviously I will need you to specify your own Stars username or PayPal email address so that I know who has paid and who has not.)

1 unit per week is a suggested donation, but if you're not comfortable with that, you can choose an amount that suits you. I will set a minimum of $10/week, which I'm assuming everyone can afford. Remember that the first week's picks are half price since there are only four days of games. The weeks will run from Monday-Sunday.

The tentative deadline to sign up for the next week's picks is me receiving your payment by the end of the ESPN Sunday Night game. This should make it fairly easy to remember. Obviously this is not a hard and fast rule, especially in the first week when there are no games until Thursday. If you pay on Monday, you'll still receive picks for Tuesday-Sunday. I'd just prefer it to be more organized.

I'm planning to email the picks and I don't really know how to set up an anonymous mailing list,. If anyone wants to keep their email address private from the other readers, let me know and we'll try to work around it. Alternatively, someone can suggest a better method here, but it has to be fairly easy to implement since my programming skills aren't great.

(Edit: I'd actually rather keep posting picks online so there's still a "public" record out there. Is it possible to keep this blog--or another blog--private, or do I need to go create a LiveJournal and set it to friends-only?)

MT2R inspired an idea that I think will help with lines that have moved significantly: I create additional tiers of bets. Since the difference between a 9% edge and a 5% edge is pretty big, what if I replaced the current unit system with a more precise one? For example, tier 1 is 5-7.5% edge, tier 2 7.5-10%, and so on.

If you have comments or suggestions, you know where to write them.

July 1 Picks

2007-07-01T00:14:00.000-07:00

Well, I got my wish to run around expectation for the month, although I would have preferred getting there a different way.

Fla -122
Col +125
Mil +105 (2)
Tam (5i) +125
Min +160 (1) and Min+1.5 -131 (1)

Yesterday: 2-8, -3.90 units

Added 6/30 Plays

2007-06-30T08:20:00.001-07:00

Was +141 (2) - Replaces old Washington play
Phi (5i) +107

Today's DSI Freeplay Parlay:

Min +130
Tam +230
Was +135
Phi (5i) +105

Total odds: +3556

Wow

2007-06-30T02:28:00.000-07:00

I may have to give up on arguing with Sportsbook.com.

From their latest email about the no-actioned Cardinals bet:

----

When thompson was out and pitching in was Wellemeyer, initial event was no action. Then a second pitching change was announced, taking Wellemeyer out and placing Thompson back in and a new event was created for this game.

The pitcher change was not reversed but changed again so there is no case other than a refund on the bet as processed.

----

As the boys at Fire Joe Morgan would say: Um, what?

I'm not the kind of guy who likes to brag about the benefits of a big income, but perhaps the best one is that at the end of the year, getting screwed by companies like Sportsbook.com or Sprint isn't as big a deal. Still very frustrating in the present, however.

June 30 Picks

2007-06-29T22:22:00.000-07:00

Muck.

Hou -105
Fla +141 (2)
Was +155 - This was for Simontacchi and is likely getting no-actioned. Watch for a play on Bergmann.
StL+1.5 -191
Ari +120
Min +143 (2)
LAA-1.5 +123
Tam+1.5 +109 (2)
Tex +260 (2) - Borderline 2 unit play, so you may want to scale it down at the current odds

Yesterday: 2-3, -0.39 units

Added 6/29 Play

2007-06-29T15:41:00.000-07:00

StL +137

Ideas

2007-06-29T03:29:00.001-07:00

I'm seeing a lot of interest in the 1 unit/week payment plan. This isn't really "fair" per se in that many people are paying different amounts for the same product, but it makes good economic sense since I'm offering the service at a price consistent with its worth to each individual. Plus I'm filling the unsold seats in the movie theater, so to speak, when it costs the same to show the movie either way.

The price floor and ceiling are an interesting idea. Obviously the ceiling is not the best plan from my standpoint, and it may make it harder to reach the desired income to keep me interested in the entire idea. But that's why we have time to discuss and refine the idea and see how it works in practice.

I'd like to think anyone who's going to refresh this page ten times a day should be betting a minimum of $25 units, but I suppose some of you could be working off small bankrolls. After all, it's not that long ago I was playing $2/$4 limit poker to pay my rent.

June 29 Picks

2007-06-28T21:21:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was probably a better day for you than me, as I decided it would be fun to split my plays on Baltimore between 5 innings, RL, and ML. Then when Hernandez was out of the starting lineup, I hedged some of the ML. Oops. Still my favorite rainout of the season.

Fla +110
LAD +110 (2)
Min +112 (2) - What the hell? This line was as high as +120 at one point. When's the last time Johan was a +120 dog, 2004?
Tor +136

Could be more plays coming, as a lot of starting pitchers were changed around today.

Yesterday: 2-4, -2.18 units

Added 6/28 Play

2007-06-28T13:53:00.001-07:00

Ari (5i) -135

Deleted Comments

2007-06-28T00:36:00.000-07:00

I've heard from a few people about the deleted comments on my posts and I just wanted to clear this up: I have never deleted a user's comment. I've deleted two of my own posts that I can remember, but no comments. I can only assume that all the comments that show up as deleted were removed by their authors.

In the future, I'm unlikely to ever delete a comment unless it's inflammatory and adds nothing of content.

A Proposal

2007-06-28T00:10:00.001-07:00

Here's one idea I'm throwing out there for the first week after the All-Star Break:

If you're interested in paying for picks, just send whatever amount you feel is appropriate for a week's worth of selections, and I'll find a way to get them to everyone who donates.

At the end of the week, if I'm not satisfied with the risk/reward I'm getting out of this, I can stop the experiment, or ask for bigger tributes, or some third option I haven't worked out.

What do you think?

June 28 Picks

2007-06-27T23:07:00.000-07:00

Hopefully you all took the StL runline instead of the 5 inning line.

Pit +154
StL+1.5 -125 (2)
Col +158
Tex+1.5 -110 (3)
Min +109
Bal +169 (2)

Yesterday: 4-5, -2.82 units

Added 6/27 Plays

2007-06-27T11:19:00.001-07:00

StL (5i) +176 (2) - Take the RL -120 if you can't get this, also 2 units
KC+1.5 +110

2007-06-27T10:35:00.000-07:00

Apparently Sportsbook.com is pulling the same stunt on last night's Cardinals game. I didn't bet the game there, but some friends did, and they're not getting paid because apparently for a few minutes SB believed Reyes was going to start the game instead of Wellemeyer. I don't know where SB heard this report, but whatever.

Not only are my friends not getting paid, live support is actually lying to them, telling them this:

Ahmed Jones: That game had a pitcher change.
You: no it didnt
Ahmed Jones: The original pitcher did not start but was put in later in the game.
You: no, thats not the case
You: i watched the game

It's one thing to simply not know what happened in a game, but here they're lying outright to the customers. Not the best way to run a business.

June 27 Picks

2007-06-26T21:21:00.001-07:00

Man, do I hate John Kruk. This is a new low, even for him.

Hou (5i) +147 - Beats the full game line, but +148 on the ML is still a 1 unit play
Col +170
SD +108
Cin+1.5 -155
Was +210
Ari (5i) -124 - Play the ML at -122 or RL at +180 for 1 unit
Tex +185 (2)
Tam +108 (2)

I anticipate a play on Reyes when they put his line up. Shocking, I know.

Yesterday: 5-2, +8.62 units

Added 6/26 Plays

2007-06-26T11:15:00.001-07:00

I'll read through the comments in the other post later, because I have several errands to run today.

Cin (5i) +125
Sea (5i) -132
KC (5i) +166 (2)

Pondering the Future

2007-06-26T00:09:00.000-07:00

It's been a fun ride, but I think we all agree that it's not in my best interests to keep giving away picks forever. It's probably about time to set an arbitrary cutoff date for posting to the Gambl0g, and the All-Star Break looks as arbitrary as any.

I'm still not sure what direction I'll take at that point. I've never really thought about selling my picks, but it's a possibility if the demand is out there. Or I could go see the world, stopping by everyone's hometown and collecting the drinks they want to buy me. Who can really say for sure?

More details to follow.

June 26 Picks

2007-06-25T21:53:00.000-07:00

Wow, that Cubs ninth inning was just...wow.

StL+1.5 -106 (2)
Ari +101
Cle +115 (2)
Min -105 (1) and Min+1.5 -155 (1)

Yesterday: 4-4-1, +1.40 units

June 25 Picks

2007-06-25T11:34:00.000-07:00

Was +176
StL (5i) +163 (2)
ChC +104
Hou +165
Ari +120
SF-.5 (5i) +135 (3) - If you can't find this bet, take -110 on the straight 5 inning line for 3 units.
Tex+1.5 +106
Min +130 (3)
KC+1.5 +125

Random CRIS Question

2007-06-25T04:00:00.001-07:00

Can anyone else not trade in their BetPoints for Freeplays anymore? If I've been bonus banned, I'd like to know now before I go out of my way to place bets there and collect bonuses.

The Crystal Ball

2007-06-25T03:23:00.000-07:00

While I'm waiting for Pinnacle to re-open its doors, I thought I'd dig up my prop sheets from before the season and look at some of the most interesting lines, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

Foresight can make you rich...

- Prince Fielder 100-1 to lead MLB in homers (Hilton)
- Brewers 7-1 to win NL Central and 28-1 to win NL (Various)
- White Sox under 88.5 Wins (Station)
- Rangers under 82.5 Wins (Hilton)
- Yankees under 97.5 Wins (Various)
- Diamondbacks over 78.5 Wins (Various)

...and a lack of it can bankrupt you...

- White Sox 5-2 to win AL (Green Valley Ranch)
- Yankees 2-5 to win AL East (Hilton)
- Cardinals 4-1 to win NL (Venetian)
- Chris Carpenter over 15.5 wins (Hilton)
- Prince Fielder under 29.5 HR (Hilton)
- B.J. Ryan over 36.5 saves (Hilton)

Other lines of note:

- Mets 6-5 to win NL Pennant (Palms)

Really? 6-5? If the Mets make the playoffs, you'll get better odds just betting them at the end of the regular season. I want to meet the guy who made the last bet on this one, and offer to sell him my bridge.

- Cubs 3-1 to win NL Pennant (New York New York)

Interesting because they opened as high as 30-1 at some places. I guess $300 million makes a real statement.

- White Sox 10-1 to win World Series (Green Valley Ranch)

Compare with the same book's AL line above. Apparently the Sox will win the AL over 28% of the time, but lose the World Series more than 2/3 of the time they get that far? The gap between leagues must not be as big as I thought.

One More Thing

TradeSports is currently trading the Yankees to win over 97.5 games at 4.0-7.0, meaning that the market places their chances of winning 98 or more games in the range of 5-6%.

I'm not attempting to handicap this number, but I get the impression (from the futures lines at several books) that the same betting public believe the Yankees are even money or better to make the playoffs this year. Pinnacle even has a prop on "Will the Yankees make the playoffs," where the Yes was a 2-1 favorite a few days ago.

Just how few wins do these people think it will take for the Bombers to sneak in? The Wild Card is hotly contested, and 90 wins (54-36 the rest of the way) isn't going to get the job done. Most likely, people look at the way the Yankees are constructed--or their string of division titles--and they bet with their hearts instead of their heads.

Sorry, Bronx, you're not taking home the division flag this year, and you'd better get cracking if you want an invitation to the dance.

Who's Beating Me?

2007-06-24T22:35:00.000-07:00

I really shouldn't make it my goal to have the best publicly posted record on the web, because we all know that the winner of a handicapping contest between 10,000 entrants is rarely going to be the best overall capper; it's more likely to be someone on a massive hot streak. (Of course, I consider this a year-long massive hot streak for me.)

Still, is anyone else out there at +180 units so far? I'm curious.

Updated YTD Results

2007-06-24T18:59:00.000-07:00

Dan Wheeler managed to blow the save twice tonight by allowing three homers and is rewarded with a win. What a country.

Today's picks are coming late because Pinnacle is down right now, preventing me from getting some of my bets down.

Yesterday: 3-3, +2.27 units

Week: 28-23-2, +21.71 units

YTD: 272-252-3, +180.54 units

Added 6/24 Plays

2007-06-24T09:52:00.000-07:00

Oak +143
Cin (5i) +127

June 24 Picks

2007-06-23T22:39:00.000-07:00

StL+1.5 +102 (2)
Fla+1.5 +117 (2)
SF +150 (2)
Ari -119 (3) - Trachsel may have the biggest gap between ERA and skills of any pitcher out there.

Yesterday: 5-5, +2.38 units

Added 6/23 Plays

2007-06-23T12:26:00.000-07:00

Fla (5i) +100
SF +178 (1 more)

Added: Atl +160 (1 more)

June 23 Picks

2007-06-22T21:20:00.000-07:00

Tor +110
Tex+1.5 +100 (2)
SF +160
Atl +143
Mil-1.5 +150
Pit+1.5 -115
Ari-1.5 +155
Bos +119
Cin +164 (2)

Yesterday: 4-3, +3.41 units

Added 6/22 Play

2007-06-22T11:16:00.000-07:00

Pit (5i) +185

Added: Tam (5i) +130

I should have suspected something was up when this line kept bouncing back after I bet it yesterday. Oh well.

Add 1 unit to your play on this game. The 5 inning line is still the best value, followed by the run line at -109.

Getting the Run-Around

2007-06-22T11:07:00.000-07:00

A couple of days ago, I blogged about getting my Cardinals-Royals wagers incorrectly graded at two books.

As I expected, BetJamaica cleared up the problem as soon as I contacted them.

As I also expected, Sportsbook.com is giving me the run-around. They sent me an email that reads, in part:

----

Thank you for your email. In baseball, the starting pitcher is an integral member of each team and a major factor in how baseball odds are listed. Any changes in the starting pitcher will result in the wager being no-actioned and the original stake will be credited back to a customer's account.

Please note that it states the following on site.

"Baseball wagers are accepted as "Listed." In the event of a pitching change prior to the game, all wagers on a team are considered "No Action". All wagers will be refunded to the customers account."

----

What they neglected to mention is that this is the actual e-mail they send to bettors when there is a pitching change:

"If the pitcher change remains in effect, your wager will be no-actioned when the game goes off. If you have a Parlay including this game, the parlay will be reduced by one game. (eg: A 10 team parlay will drop to a 9 team parlay). If the pitching change is reversed, then your bets will stand as originally made."

Now, this problem could be because the customer service people do not actually understand the problem and do not care to investigate. (Freakonomics blogged awhile back about customer service people having almost no incentive to perform their jobs well, and I completely agree with this.) But it's still the mark of a poorly run site, and I'll be less likely to place bets on Sportsbook.com in the future for fear of running into this issue again.

Anyway, who should I contact at SBR to get this cleared up? Thanks in advance for your reply.

June 22 Picks

2007-06-21T20:09:00.000-07:00

StL +104 (2) - It's that time again...
Min +111 (2)
Tor -109
Det +146
Tex -110
Pit (5i) +155 (2) - Play Pit +176 for 1 on the full game line.

Yesterday: 4-0, +7.61 units

June 21 Picks

2007-06-20T20:27:00.001-07:00

Now that's the kind of day I've been looking for. Too bad Cincinnati couldn't hold on, or we'd all be fighting each other to buy me drinks.

I'm tempted to take today's profits and offer to pay my landlord a year's rent in advance to see if it will ease his mind about renting to such a dangerous credit risk, but he'd probably just think I'm a drug dealer or something.

Tex +125 (2) - Interesting how the early action in every game of this series has come down on Texas; earlier in the season everyone couldn't wait to fade them.
Col +174 (1) and Col+1.5 +110 (1) - It's tempting to wait for a line move here; this is ROGER CLEMENS, after all.
LAD +127 - Somewhat of a borderline play even before they got blasted tonight, so you may want to pass on this one if the line moves.
Sea (5i) -177 - Another case where you don't really want to bother with the full game line, because the value here is in Felix vs. Van Benschoten.

Yesterday: 7-3-1, +13.75 units

Added 6/20 Play

2007-06-20T09:48:00.000-07:00

StL +108 (2)
Col +148 (1 more)

Buyer Beware

2007-06-20T07:55:00.000-07:00

Before St. Louis made its original pitching change yesterday, subbing in Wells for Thompson, I made a play on the Cardinals at two different sportsbooks, though it went unposted because it was below the threshold for a 1 unit play. (The posted Cardinals bet was for Wells.)

After Wells was announced as the starter, both books graded my bets as No Action. When Thompson actually started the game and won, the grading was not corrected at either book, and one customer support team is actually arguing that their grading is correct because the announcement was made that Thompson would not start. (This is the same book where I placed my revised bet on the Cards, so they really don't have a leg to stand on.)

I won't identify the books until I attempt to resolve the issue, but this is just another warning that you're not always getting the service you hope for with cyber-bookies.

June 20 Picks

2007-06-19T21:00:00.000-07:00

Praise be Cincinnati, savior of the stuck.

Cin+1.5 +110 (3)
Ari +100
Phi (5i) +185 (1) and Phi+1.5 -105 (1)
LAD +162 (2)
Min +194 (4) - In updating my pitcher stats yesterday, I assigned penalties to a few pitchers for numbers that will lag behind their peripherals due to a variety of problems, namely gopheritis. Scott Baker received the biggest penalty; he's still a 4 unit play.
Bos -110
Tex +122 (3)
Col +140
Bal (5i) +134 - The full game line is probably not worth playing at all. We're looking to exploit Germano's hot start.

Yesterday: 4-4-1, -1.16 units

Parlays: 0-1, -1 freeplay

2007-06-19T17:00:00.002-07:00

Home-Field Advantage, my ass. Road teams are ahead 22-1 through about nine total innings of play across four games.

Added 6/19 Plays

2007-06-19T09:05:00.000-07:00

Cin (5i) +170 (1 additional) - I strongly recommend playing the 5 inning line here, as the value in this bet is mainly against Gaudin.

Added: StL -145 (no-actioned due to pitching change)

Today's CRIS Freeplay Parlay:

Tex +112
SF (5i) +145
Cin (5i) +165
Hou (5i) +145

+3341 total odds

Yesterday's results: 1-5, -6.55 units

June 19 Picks

2007-06-18T21:36:00.000-07:00

I may need a mental health day soon for various reasons, but there are too many plays tomorrow. Who can pass up a chance for that much variance?

SF (5i) +161 (2) and SF +167 - This line is moving like crazy right now.
Was (5i) +139 (2) - +142 for the full game is about an equivalent line.
Cle-1.5 +140
Min (5i) -131
Fla +102
Tex +126 (3)
Col +1.5 +100 - Take +155 for the full game.
Cin (5i) +156 (2)
Hou (5i) +156 (2)

Travis Hafner

2007-06-18T16:12:00.001-07:00

Does anyone know why he's sitting? I read that he was given a day off yesterday due to a slump, but now he's on the bench again, and I can't see Eric Wedge being that dumb if he's not hurt.

League Disparity

2007-06-18T14:14:00.000-07:00

Everyone knows the AL is better than the NL these days. How much should we account for this effect in handicapping?

You may have noticed that the majority of my interleague plays are on NL teams. I don't think this is an accident; the books are shading their lines heavily in favor of the Junior Circuit. But is such a massive adjustment really correct?

I'm not certain. What I do know is that I've experimented with a range of values to account for the gap in league quality. Even when the league quality factor is raised far above what I consider to be correct, the number of recommended plays remains far higher for NL than AL teams.

It's hard to say why this is. Perhaps the sportsbooks are making too big a league adjustment. Or I could be way off on how much this factor should be reflected in the line. Maybe the explanation is that most of the teams I'm betting heavily this year are in the NL: Washington, St. Louis, Arizona, San Diego.

Bettors tend to overreact to recent events, and I think the AL's utter dominance last year is clouding their judgment. I feel fine with the adjustments I've made, and I think the value in most interleague bets probably lies with the NL, just as it does with all underdogs.

Added 6/18 Play

2007-06-18T13:19:00.000-07:00

Min +162

June 18 Picks

2007-06-18T09:10:00.001-07:00

I know a lot of you are probably wondering why this post comes today instead of last night. There are actually several reasons:

- Most of these plays are the result of overnight line moves, so last night's entry would have been very short.
- I was very tired last night and fell asleep early.
- As I'm increasing my bet amounts, it's getting harder to stay within my overnight limits, especially on 5 inning plays. This means I'll either switch permanently to posting in the early afternoon, or post only a few plays overnight and add to them the next day.

Anyway, on to today's selections. All the 5 inning lines are a good bit better than the current market prices on the full games, so you should be willing to give up a little extra vig to play the 5 inning line instead, but probably not more than 5 cents. The exception is the Cincinnati line, because their bullpen is awful; look for the 5 inning price on that one.

Cin (5i) +168 (2)
Fla (5i) +120 (2)
Tam (5i) +162
Phi (5i) -117
Hou +200 (2)

Yesterday: 4-7, -1.87 units

Week: 28-30, +6.16 units

YTD: 244-229-1, +158.83 units

Parlays: 0-2, -2 freeplays

Added 6/17 Play

2007-06-17T09:57:00.001-07:00

Atl +195

Today's Parlay

2007-06-17T08:44:00.001-07:00

The CRIS Freeplay Parlay of the day:

Pit +124
Phi +124
LAD +126
NYM +170

Total: +2961

Added 6/17 Plays

2007-06-17T08:28:00.001-07:00

StL (5i) +135 (2)
StL +138

Added: SD +122

June 17 Picks

2007-06-16T20:24:00.000-07:00

I forgot to mention...Anthony Reyes is back! I was getting worried that I'd have to find a new leak. With him in the fold, I can resume dumping money.

Tex +145 (3)
Ari-1.5 +119 (2)
Pit +116 (2)
Phi +128 (2)
Fla +112
Min-1.5 +157 (2)
LAD +122 (2)
NYM +168 (2)

Yesterday: 6-3, +7.52 units

Added 6/16 Play

2007-06-16T09:45:00.001-07:00

SD +120

Added 6/16 Plays

2007-06-16T08:01:00.001-07:00

That was annoying. For some reason, WSEX cancelled my bet on today's Fla-KC game due to "incorrectly listed starting pitchers" even though my wager history shows the same pitchers everyone else has. Additionally, Baltimore has apparently pulled Brian Burres from today's start. Hopefully he still goes tomorrow; it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that his ERA is a fluke.

Ari +130 (2)
NYM (5i) +119 (2)

June 16 Picks

2007-06-15T18:04:00.000-07:00

Boy, taking a nap out of tilt and waking up after the games are over works like a charm. I even missed the Cardinals taking a 3-0 lead!

Today's rambling comes courtesy of the excellent greasefreak.com, which explains in detail why I have yet to abandon Chicagoland.

For those of you who are sick of losing money on the D-Backs, there is good news to report as Randy Johnson was scratched Saturday, leaving it impossible to bet on him. I still set the O/U line for how much I lose on Arizona tomorrow at 2 units.

Pit+121
Hou +106
Fla +112
Tex +177 (2)
Col-1.5 +165
StL +163 (3) - The system calls this a 4 unit play, but tonight's blowout and the Wellemeyer factor beg for a manual adjustment.

Yesterday: 4-4, +3.36 units

Parlays: 0-1, -1 freeplay

Parlays and Freeplays

2007-06-15T09:39:00.001-07:00

I think I've found a decent way to incorporate small parlays into my portfolio, bringing me closer to an optimal strategy for bankroll growth. Every few days, I rack up enough CRIS Betpoints for a $150 Freeplay. For simple mathematical reasons, this is better used on a longshot future or parlay than a straight bet. Why not kill two birds with one stone?

I'll keep a record of the parlays under a separate category. For simplicity's sake, I'd like to say I'm risking 1 unit on each, but I don't actually want people to risk this much. Maybe if I call them freeplay units, people will be able to draw the distinction? Feel free to chime in on the comments.

Today's parlay includes:

Min-1.5 +185
StL +180
Col-1.5 +195

Odds of +2254.

Added 6/15 Plays

2007-06-15T07:42:00.001-07:00

Min -111 (2)
SF (5i) +120

Added: Tex +139 (2)

The Crystal Ball

2007-06-15T06:58:00.001-07:00

Since I'm bored and not hungry enough to leave the house, it's time for today's rambling. This one concerns potential tiebreakers that are of importance for futures betting.

Powered by the tiebreaker rules, here we go. Remember that these only apply when both teams are playoff-bound anyway; else they will engage one another in a one-game playoff.

AL East:

This has boiled down to the same two-team race we see every year. Boston holds a 7-5 edge in head-to-head games, and has a massive advantage in intradivisional record (16-9 vs. 8-15 for the Yankees).

It's true that the Yankees will probably need to do well against Boston and the rest of the division if they're to catch up in the standings, but this is still another obstacle in their path. If these teams end up tied for the divisional flag and wild card, it's hard to see Boston not winning the tiebreak.

AL Central:

Cleveland leads Detroit 5-2 in the season series, and has the better AL Central record at 17-7 to 14-12. They're big favorites to end up on the right side of a tie.

AL West:

Who would have thought the West had any chance of producing a Wild Card team this year? Oakland leads the season series against Los Angaheim 4-2, but is losing to Seattle 1-4, who in turn are getting crushed by LAA 2-7. The Angels also easily have the best intradivisional record at 15-7.

NL East:

Atlanta leads against both the Mets (6-3) and Phillies (5-4). Philly is 4-3 against New York. All three teams are within a half-game of one another in NL East play. Slight advantage to the Chop.

(Side-note: What's up with the East? The teams range from good to awful, and yet every team is basically .500 in divisional play--the two that aren't have played an odd number of games. Parity has truly arrived in baseball.)

NL Central:

Why bother? The Wild Card isn't coming out of here. If you're interested, the Cubs are 5-4 against the Brewers, but are getting clobbered in divisional games, 14-15 to Milwaukee's 18-10.

NL West:

Another intransitive division, where the Padres lead the Dodgers 5-4, the Dodgers lead the D-Backs 4-1, and Arizona is 3-2 against San Diego. In divisional play, it goes Padres 15-11, Dodgers 14-11, D-Backs 15-16.

Since the fourth playoff team is likely emerging from here, this situation is worth monitoring. Arizona's chances are hurt somewhat.

June 15 Picks

2007-06-14T21:24:00.000-07:00

SD +131 (2)
Pit +110 (3)
Ari +145
Col +105 (3)
StL +176 (2)

Yesterday: 3-5, +1.22 units

Added 6/14 Play

2007-06-14T10:47:00.001-07:00

Tex +159 (3)

Multiple-Event Kelly Betting

2007-06-14T02:02:00.001-07:00

This post has been deleted because it contained inaccurate information.

June 14 Picks

2007-06-13T22:18:00.000-07:00

Cin (5i) +119
Ari +235 (1), +230 (1), and +227 (3)
Mil (5i) -105 (1) and Mil +100
Hou-1.5 +200
Sea (5i) +140 (2)
Was +185 (1) and +180 (2)
StL-1.5 +149 (2)

Yesterday: 4-5, -2.75 units (Mil no-actioned due to pitching change)

Added 6/13 Play

2007-06-13T17:04:00.000-07:00

LAD -112

June 13 Picks

2007-06-12T21:26:00.001-07:00

SF-1.5 +155 (2)
Tex +159 (3)
Fla +113
Ari +210 (1) and Ari+1.5 +105 (1)
Was (5i) +154 (2) - This is significantly better than the full game at +153, although that is also a 2-unit play.
Col+1.5 +110
Oak +107
Sea +140

Added: Mil +119

Yesterday: 5-5, -0.39 units. This almost looks like a typo after how frustrating the night was.

Added 6/12 Play

2007-06-12T12:27:00.001-07:00

Was +165

Accuscore

2007-06-12T04:40:00.000-07:00

A reader just alerted me to the presence of Accuscore, which estimates the probability of one team winning a game by simulating the contest 10,000 times.

This is a great idea in practice, something I would probably include in my handicapping if I had the computer power and the programming skills to do so. In practice, Accuscore is probably horribly flawed, and I'm not just saying that because the Ari/NYY forecast recommends betting against my 5 unit play.

Why do I believe this? Garbage in, garbage out. Here are some bits of wisdom from the Accuscore website:

(Note: all spelling and grammar errors are theirs, and only serve to make the product look even more unprofessional)

"Overall, road teams this year are winning .479 percent of games while home teams are winning .528 percent of the time."

Isn't there some constant those numbers are supposed to sum up to? I keep forgetting these things.

"I had some “research” on the number of gentleman’s clubs per city. In cities where the club per capita is higher than average, Lugo is hitting 194 points below his season average? As of 5/16 that was 0-19 in 2007.

The question is, are there other players who also exhibit a decline in performance in big cities, cities with a high “SCI” (Strip Club Index), or both?

Throughout the year, we’ll provide statistical analysis investigating the effects of Krystal, Destiny, and Jasmine on Major League Baseball players’ bating average. "

You read that correctly: Strip Club Index. You can't make this kind of stuff up. I wonder if ESPN read these articles before signing the partnership agreement?

"It is important to know that predictions with bigger differences between Simulation Percentages and Gambling Odds Percentages DID NOT perform better than predictions with smaller differences.

[B]ecause MLB scoring dynamics differ significantly from other sports we cover, we strongly advise not reading too much into how much higher or how much lower our simulation winning percentages are from the Vegas Odds generated percentages."

Take a look around the site. They're clearly marketing themselves to gamblers. Imagine a stock analyst confessing to you that his hottest picks don't actually beat the market. (This is true for most pundits, but they wouldn't dare admit it.) That's basically what StatShark is doing here.

Found a game where the Vegas line is 50 cents off? Apparently that's no better than a 1 cent difference.

----

I could go on, but do I need to? You might as well make picks by flipping a coin; at least when you're done, you can still spend the coin on a gumball.

More Fun With Numbers

2007-06-12T01:07:00.000-07:00

You all may think these picks are free, but they come at a cost: having to read through the ramblings of an insomniac.

I recently crossed two milestones that no one cares about but me:

- Passing the +100 unit mark in expected returns (comparing my estimated line to the actual odds offered)
- My being a winner long-term is now significant at a=.001. In other words, there's a .1% chance my long-term ROI is actually below zero.

I'll try and keep these things in mind during my next losing streak; three or four bad days in a row can really shake one's confidence. Frankly, if anything, I should be surprised that I've been so consistent this year; Michael Murray had a negative ROI from July-August last year according to Betting Baseball 2007.

More random observations:

- We're currently running at twice the expected ROI for June, so don't get too comfortable.

- I'm looking around other forums for anyone with a similar handicapping method for cross-checking purposes, but finding little of use. Perhaps--and this makes intuitive sense now that I think about it--the computer geeks like to keep their mouths shut while the "feel" cappers are all about talking up their hunches.

I definitely ran across multiple comments like "The only chance the Nationals have in this game is if Santana goes down with an arm injury in the first inning." Those always make me smile. It's not that I think Speigner or the Nats are good; I had them as more than a 3-1 dog to win that game, the biggest estimated line I've churned out so far this season. I just have a hard time believing that anyone who thinks like that can be a winner in the long run.

- Breaking down the season to date by odds:

Odds	Units	ROI	expROI
+200&up	57.1	49.6%	19.0%
+175-199	65.6	18.8%	16.6%
+150-174	102.2	25.0%	14.7%
+125-149	178.3	7.2%	13.0%
+100-124	161.8	10.2%	13.0%
-125-(-101)	81.7	19.6%	10.6%
-150-(-126)	44.9	34.9%	8.5%
-151&up	30.1	22.9%	7.9%

I hope that chart came out legibly, because I can't format. Anyway, as the chart demonstrates, taking a monster dog that I like gives you about ten times as much return as a one-year CD, in roughly 1/3000th as much time. That's not bad.

Something actually worth noting is the downward trend in the expected ROI column, though it makes intuitive sense. (Also, the column really measures expected ROI squared, because the better plays are weighted heavier.) If you've been wondering why my big plays are usually big dogs, there you have it.

- Is it really necessary for Karl Ravech to repeat the exact same Jim Thome stat during EVERY commercial break of ESPN's 2 AM replay? How many channel surfers is this game attracting at 3:30?

June 12 Picks

2007-06-11T19:28:00.001-07:00

It's been awhile since my play of the day lost without a massive ninth inning comeback. Oh well, back to work.

LAD +111 (2)
Ari +162 (5) - WTF line of the day. If the Yankees and D-backs played a game in the Bronx with equally good starting pitchers, I could see +162 maybe being a fair line, but it'd still be a stretch. Here, the Diamondbacks have the reigning Cy Young winner going against the worst strikeout pitcher of all time. And to top it off, the line movement indicates bets are coming in on the Yanks! (Pinny has Ari +170 now.) I guess six-game winning streaks have a way of making a team look unstoppable, or maybe Clemens's magic is supposed to rub off on the team. (Does he have to attend home games that he's not starting?)
Phi-1.5 +144 (2)
Mil +161
SD +113
Oak +158
Cubs -123
Min -136
SF +109

Yesterday: 2-1, -0.93 units

Added 6/11 Play

2007-06-11T13:20:00.000-07:00

Phi -114

June 11 Pick

2007-06-10T17:52:00.000-07:00

Early post today because there's not much out there.

Hou +174 (3)

Added: LAD +107

Yesterday: 4-2, +3.08 units

Week: 31-30-1, +31.62 units (Was that really so bad, all of you who flipped out at the Tampa and LAD meltdowns?)

YTD: 216-199-1, +152.67

Futures/Props Updates

2007-06-10T02:26:00.001-07:00

I'm bored and currently watching a DVD of the first season of the Drew Carey Show, so I'm force-feeding everyone an update of my futures plays from before the season started.

Season O/U wins: Three of these (ChW under, Ari over, Tor under) are going swimmingly. The Dodgers are on pace to hit their over (barely) but aren't playing as well as their record indicates, so I remain hopeful.

TradeSports has these current prices:

Ari over: 88.5 (sell) - 91.0 (buy)
ChW under: 93.7 - 96.2
LAD under: 52.0 - 57.0
Tor under: 87.5 - 92.5

Player Props: These are going okay. Mike Piazza got hurt, so his prop was no-actioned. None of the pitchers have gotten hurt, and Saito and Jenks look unlikely to lose their jobs. Still, the pitchers whose unders I took aren't exactly racking up wins, so I feel fine.

The Cy Young Field bets are both looking very good. I have eight of the top nine pitchers in AL ERA and nine of the top 11 in the NL; now I just need to petition the voters to ignore W-L records. (I do have Lackey and Hamels, who are leading their leagues in wins right now.)

AL Team Futures: Cleveland is obviously doing very well; the exchanges have them as a coin flip to win the division. Minnesota has disappointed, obviously. Baltimore and Seattle have been better than expected, and I'm fine with owning them at 100-1 and 14-1 respectively.

NL Team Futures: The Brewers have been a massive success, also trading at around 50% to take the division flag. This is due mainly to a lack of competition from the pathetic NL Central, but who couldn't have seen that coming? Arizona has also done well, even though the Padres have established themselves as the class of the NL West.

The Phillies and Rockies have disappointed, while the Pirates and Braves remain longshots but are returning decent value at the odds I took.

June 10 Picks

2007-06-09T21:49:00.000-07:00

Slow day today, because there are a lot of what my friend called "Garland vs. Garland" matchups where I can't pick a side without going back to betting totals.

Ari +108
Hou +131
KC +131
Min-1.5 +124
Pit +214

Added: Cin +145

Yesterday: 7-5-1, +10.55 units

Added 6/9 Play (II)

2007-06-09T15:53:00.001-07:00

Was +370

Added 6/9 Plays

2007-06-09T14:05:00.000-07:00

Fla -106
Cin +115

Beating the CEOs

2007-06-09T00:00:00.001-07:00

According to Forbes' list of the highest-paying jobs in America, the average CEO makes $144,600 a year.

So far, the Gambl0g is at +131.5 units on the year. At $1000 a unit, we're almost there in ten weeks of work.

I don't mean to brag, but that's pretty cool.

June 9 Picks

2007-06-08T22:26:00.000-07:00

Pit+1.5 +114
Hou +120 (2)
SF +108
Col (5i) +134 (2) and Col +139 (1) - The 5 inning play is better given the choice.
Was+1.5 +150 (2)
LAA +106
Tex +153 (2)
Ari +105

Added: Det (5i) -140

Yesterday: 5-6, -2.83 units barring a SF miracle.

Added 6/8 Plays

2007-06-08T12:42:00.000-07:00

Pit +200
Cin +128
StL +122
Tex +117 (2)

June 8 Picks

2007-06-07T21:13:00.000-07:00

Atl +116 (2)
Tam +125 (2)
NYM +111
Hou +111
Ari +144 (2)
Sea (5i) +133
SF-1.5 +182 (2)

Yesterday: 4-4, +3.74 units

Added 6/7 Play

2007-06-07T16:10:00.001-07:00

Tex +123 (2)

June 7 Picks

2007-06-06T21:21:00.000-07:00

Now that's more like it. A couple of big comebacks early, and no bad beats to cast a pall over the day.

Was +139
Col +143 (3)
LAD +205 (4) and LAD+1.5 -105 (1) - Sometimes you see a pitching matchup and know in advance that you're going to have a huge play on it. Kuo vs. Peavy is one of those.
KC +255 (3) - The market has officially overcorrected on Carmona, who has no chance of maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA with that strikeout rate.
Tam +215 (3)
NYY -115 (2)

Yesterday: 6-4, +9.71 units

By the way, it was pointed out to me by a reader that I accidentally listed yesterday's total as +10.71 units instead of 9.71. If anyone else notices a mistake like this, please point it out; the last thing I need is a rep as a guy who falsely reports his own stats.

Added 6/6 Play (II)

2007-06-06T09:09:00.000-07:00

Min +200 (2 more) - You know, when I saw this line at +164, I thought to myself that it was a good price but totally inconsistent with how they've set lines for games with a rookie starter facing an established star. I tend to err on the side of caution and not wait for line moves, but I may have to change it up now.

Added 6/6 Play

2007-06-06T05:41:00.000-07:00

Atl -119

I should have bet this last night, but I wasn't aware that Miguel Cabrera is almost certain to sit tonight; apparently he was scheduled for a day off even before injuring himself yesterday.

FAQ

2007-06-06T02:29:00.001-07:00

I'm bored and too wired to sleep right now, so I'm going to keep posting until someone tells me to stop. Anyway, since I've yet to be nominated for The Well, I thought I'd answer some of the questions I've been asked by readers.

If you have anything you'd like answered, feel free to add it to the comments and I'll edit the post.

How did I get into baseball betting?

This is a long one, because I'm basically writing a short autobiography. Feel free to skip ahead.

I've always taken a great interest in baseball, because it's a numbers game and I'm a numbers person. In high school, while the readers of this blog were busy getting laid and testing their alcohol tolerance, I was winning math team awards and memorizing players' batting averages. (I like to think I'm not that big of a nerd, but I can definitely play the part convincingly.)

I briefly lost interest in the game following the 1994-95 strike, because I knew nothing about economics at age 11. I followed MLB somewhat casually until 1998, when Kerry Wood and Sammy Sosa went berserk on the league and led the Cubs to the playoffs, an unheard-of concept at the time. Soon after, fantasy baseball and sabermetric research made me more of a fan than ever. The explosion of the internet was also a huge boon; without cable TV, my main access to out-of-town teams and players was through This Week In Baseball.

As I was delving deeper into baseball research, reading the works of Bill James, BP, Ron Shandler, et al, my friends and I were discovering the joy of poker. Eventually, this led me to the internet and to 2+2 Publishing. I had no job at the time and no desire to work for minimum wage, so I accumulated spending money by collecting bonuses and playing low limits online. I eventually advanced up to 15/30, at which point I decided that the games had become too tough and the variance too heavy, and I settled back to 5/10, 10/20, and 3/6 pot-limit Omaha.

In April 2005, I was one month away from graduation and my school's basketball team was in the Final Four following the best comeback I've ever seen. I became convinced that Illinois could handle UNC and made a deposit to Pinnacle Sports to put $50 down on the Illini--after asking my roommate (bugstud) what the numbers +122 and -132 next to the team names stood for. The baseball season was also getting started that night, so I checked the MLB Futures and Props lines on a lark.

The number that caught my eye was the Red Sox at +300 to win the AL East. The Sox had just won the World Series, and I read several articles explaining that they had actually outperformed the Yankees in 2004 despite finishing behind them in the standings. Most of the projections I saw had the Red Sox winning the division. I bought into it and put $800 of my $1000 deposit on Boston. (The Red Sox ended up losing the division title on a tiebreaker, but I hedged in August and collected a decent profit.)

Later that year, I earned my money the way any math degree recipient does: by arbing, collecting sportsbook bonuses, and playing poker. I found more MLB Futures lines, and stumbled upon coolstandings.com and the BP playoff odds. Both agreed that the Indians were a good bet to win the wild card, so I took them. (Thankfully, I hedged that one too.)

Many people can cite a turning point in their life that led them to their current vocation. For me, it was the 2006 World Baseball Classic. Those of you who have read Betting Baseball 2007 may recall that the author opens the book by sweating the Korea/Japan final after overbetting Korea to win Pool A. I didn't strain my bankroll the way Michael Murray did, but I did put down $1000 on them at +550 after reading Clay Davenport's breakdown of the WBC. After Seung-Yeop Lee's game-winning homer and Ichiro's popout to end it, I gained additional confidence in betting underdogs for the rest of the Classic, and began working on my handicapping. Italy, Canada, Mexico, Korea, and Japan all came up big at times, and I ended the Classic up 40 dimes.

By now, the MLB season was fast approaching, and I was looking for new betting opportunities. Again, I compared the projections to the odds that were being offered and identified some good betting opportunities. During the season, I found some good bets and luckboxed my way into others. Some, like the Brewers and Phillies, turned out to be duds. But many of my biggest investments--the Twins, Dodgers, Padres, and especially the Tigers and Ryan Howard--paid big dividends later. I bet the occasional game, but nearly all of my bankroll was eventually tied up in futures bets and hedges for them.

I definitely got very lucky last season, not only because several of my horses won, but because their success gave me the confidence (and the bankroll) I needed to work on my single game model this year and trust the results. With five months off work, I had plenty of time to develop a strong mathematical framework and a user-friendly interface. It's probably not the best model out there, but more than good enough.

And here we are, all (hopefully) profiting from my experience.

What do I do during the (baseball) offseason?

Since this is my first year betting games daily, I don't really have an answer to this one. Last offseason, I spent some time hunting sportsbook bonuses, arbing, and betting some +EV NFL Futures. Mostly, though, I traveled and took leisure time. In a job as stressful as this one, it helps to have a lot of time off. (This may be the first year I actually enjoy the All-Star Break.)

How do I determine the number of units to put on a game?

Generally, a 1 unit play means the model finds an edge of between 5 and 10 percent on the game. 2 units is 10-15%, 3 units 15-20%, 4 units 20-25%, and 5 units 25%+. Less than 5%, I'll pass on the game.

If I feel the model isn't accounting enough for something, I manually adjust the line. For example, flyball pitchers will do better in PETCO or if the wind is blowing heavily in.

For my actual bets, I use fractional units, because it's silly to bet twice as much on a 10.1% edge as on a 9.9% edge. However, I feel that providing the exact edges here may give away too much information, and it makes public record-keeping a nuisance, so I stick to the units system.

Do I use 'risk amount' or 'to win amount' to size my bets?

I always bet 'risk amount' on underdogs and 'to win amount' on favorites. (In other words, risking 1 unit to win 1.40 units or 1.50 units to win 1.) This allows me to use only the edge to size my bets, since the Kelly criterion adjusts for the odds received.

Where do I find my lines?

The list includes, but is not limited to:

5Dimes
BetJamaica
Bodog
Bookmaker
Greek
Intertops
Matchbook
Pinnacle
Skybook
Sportsbook
VIP
WagerStreet
WSEX

I would suggest that any serious bettor make accounts on 5Dimes, BetJamaica, Matchbook, Pinnacle, and WSEX. If you have enough bankroll to spread around, also get Bookmaker, Greek, and Sportsbook. The others aren't all that necessary.

I often hear that my lines are stale by the time they get posted. This happens (and will continue to happen) a lot, because I'm almost always taking the best available line and many of these books will move any line 5 cents in response to an overnight max bet. After all, the main purpose of the overnight lines is to use the small-stakes sharps to make the line more accurate for the high-rollers.

How much time does it take to handicap?

The actual handicapping doesn't take much time at all. I'd say that a typical day involves maybe 15 minutes of data input, 15 minutes to check injuries and weather, and 10 minutes to calculate lines. Every five days I update the pitcher stats, which takes maybe an hour.

Line shopping, on the other hand, can take a few hours per day if I have enough bets to get down. If I find a workable bankroll on Pinny, that could cut the time in half.